Plastic demand could shrink by 30 per cent in 2050, Wood Mackenzie report says

Global plastic demand could be reduced by 30 per cent, in a scenario where the world reaches net zero by 2050, a new report by consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie says.

In the report, called ‘Chemicals demand in a 1.5 C scenario’, Wood Mackenzie explores three potential outcomes for the energy and resources sector, looking at the base case, pledges announced in the run up to COP28 – which was the global decision-making body of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates in 2023 – and a net zero 2050 scenario.

In the base case scenario, the analytics firm estimates that total plastic demand (virgin and recycled) will grow to around 880 million tonnes by 2050, driven by single-use packaging and consumer products.

In the accelerated energy transition 1.5°C scenario, total plastic demand would show a 30 per cent reduction in comparison with the base case. Virgin production alone would decrease by 35 per cent. Europe would see the largest virgin plastic demand slash at about 65 per cent, North America would follow with around 40 per cent decline, China with 30 per cent, Latin America with around 25 per cent, Asia (excluding China) with around 20 per cent, and the Middle East and Africa with around 10 per cent.

Packaging and consumer product sectors would be impacted the most, the report says, with a demand loss of 40 and 30 per cent respectively in the 1.5°C scenario. Construction, textiles, and industrial materials would also see demand significantly affected.

“In implementing these various mechanisms, we forecast that total plastic demand could reduce by up to 260 Mt by 2050 compared to our base case outlook,” Wood Mackenzie officials said. “Developed economies of Europe and North America would be expected to reduce plastic consumption at a quicker pace at 5 per cent loss per year between 2025 and 2050, compared to the developing economies in other parts of the world.”

“Elimination mechanisms supported by legislation such as the EU’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) directive, would see the ban of certain plastic products like single-use plastics, packaging, and take away containers,” they continued. “Substitution mechanisms would see the use of plastics shift to other circular and sustainable alternatives, while reuse and refill products would reduce the consumption of single use materials, impacting total demand.”

Virgin polymer demand could be reduced through mechanical recycling, they said, however, it does require proper waste management and sorting technologies.

“Chemical recycling has the potential to commercially manage waste that cannot be treated by mechanical recycling, and bio-based packaging that uses feedstocks can similarly reduce polymer production,” Wood Mackenzie said.