Ontario to lead Canada’s export growth in 2015: EDC

Ontario is forecast to lead all other provinces in export growth this year before a recovery in oil prices in 2016 restores the fortunes of energy-producing provinces like Alberta, according to a new report by Export Development Canada (EDC).

Exports of goods from Ontario are forecast to grow by 10 per cent to $195 billion following last year’s eight per cent growth, the report said, due to strong demand from a strengthening U.S. economy and a weaker loonie.

The increase will be driven primarily by pent up U.S. demand for automobiles and industrial machinery, the report continued.

But it won’t last long: Ontario is forecast to move from best to worst in 2016 when its predicted two per cent growth will fall behind Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador, whose exports are expected to grow 19 per cent to $120 billion and $13.3 billion respectively. Quebec, meanwhile, is expected to experience solid export growth mainly from its aerospace, automotive parts and forestry sectors, producing growth of seven per cent in 2015 and six per cent in 2016.

Turning to the other provinces and their predicted export growth in 2015 and 2016, EDC forecasts Prince Edward Island at nine and four per cent, Nova Scotia at seven and three per cent, New Brunswick at -10 per cent and 11 per cent, Manitoba at two per cent and three per cent, Saskatchewan at -five per cent and seven per cent, and British Columbia at five per cent and six per cent.

EDC forecasts Canada’s exports of goods, which grew by 10.9 per cent to reach $491.6 billion in 2014, is expected to remain flat this year and grow by eight per cent in 2016. The value of energy exports is forecast to drop 23 per cent to $109 billion in 2015 even though volumes will rise modestly, and then grow by 23 per cent in 2016.

EDC’s forecast for the American economy is 3.6 per cent growth in 2015 and 3.3 per cent in 2016. The outlook for Canadian GDP growth is 2.4 per cent for both 2015 and 2016.