Although the value of the loonie continues to challenge Canadian companies, Export Development Canada (EDC) is forecasting an increase in exports of 5% this year and an additional 6% next year.
The EDC says in its fall global forecast that the dollar will fall back next year to US$0.97, offering some relief to exporters.
According to the Ottawa-based export financing agency, volumes will rise 4% next year as US GDP growth reaches 2.8%, Europe exits recession and crude production ramps up. And goods exports should finally recover to pre-2009 levels by early next year.
Merchandise exports to the U.S. are to grow 7% in 2013 but exports to Western Europe will fall 2% with falling metals prices offsetting modest improvements in other sectors.
EDC forecasts sales to emerging markets led by agri-food and fertilizers will rise 10% and account for 12.4% of total Canadian exports next year compared to 11.5% in 2011.
In provincial highlights, a weaker-than-expected showing for industrial goods due to a slowing automotive market this year will leave Ontario’s export performance short of the spring outlook.
Quebec’s export growth will be roughly halved this year and next as industrial goods, M&E, forestry and transportation sector sales to foreign markets soften, but gains will be more broad-based by sector in 2013.
A surge in U.S. homebuilding will bring long-awaited revival to New Brunswick’s forestry sector, says an EDC forecast for the province.
EDC reports exports will rebound by 6% in 2013 after a 1% decline this year.
“Higher prices for natural gas and seafood products will further boost overall export growth,” said Peter Hall, EDC’s chief economist.
New Brunswick’s key international export sectors are energy, forestry and agri-food, which together account for nearly 90% of the value of the province’s total international sales.