Ontario exports will rise on increased U.S. demand: EDC

A surging U.S. economy will help Ontario exports realize growth of seven per cent this year and five per cent in 2015 – and boost the province’s chemicals and plastics industry – according to a new report.

The report, from Export Development Canada (EDC), says the increase is being driven primarily by strong U.S. demand for industrial machinery.

According to the EDC, those exports are projected to grow by 10 per cent this year and jump to 17 per cent in 2015, making it the biggest mover in Ontario’s economic forecast.

Moreover, rising U.S. industrial output will also boost Ontario’s chemicals and plastics industry by as much as 12 per cent this year and five per cent in 2015.

The report also says the auto sector – which accounted for 35 per cent of all Ontario exports in 2013 – should grow by eight per cent this year and another three per cent in 2015.

“Considering the competitive factors and capacity constraints, the sector is continuing to perform well,” EDC chief economist Peter Hall wrote in the report. “A lower Canadian dollar and increasing U.S. auto sales will help to support the industry’s growth, but it will continue to face competition from Mexico and southern US states.”

But Hall cautions that without considerable new investment, “Ontario is bumping in to capacity constraints that will limit auto sector export growth next year.”

Mining and metals, the province’s second largest sector, is forecast to grow by three and six per cent in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

The EDC says gold mining will continue to see strong growth during 2014 and 2015, although lower commodity prices will put pressure on future production plans.